Industrial Engineering and Operations Management PhD Thesis Defense by Caner Canyakmaz

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KOÇ UNIVERSITY

GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SCIENCES & ENGINEERING

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

PHD THESIS DEFENSE BY CANER CANYAKMAZ

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Title: Inventory Management, Pricing and Risk Hedging in the Presence of Price Fluctuations

Speaker: Caner Canyakmaz

Time: July 17, 2017, 11:00

Place: ENG 208

Koç University

Rumeli Feneri Yolu

Sariyer, Istanbul

Thesis Committee Members:

Prof. Süleyman Özekici (Advisor, Koç University)

Asst. Prof. Uğur Çelikyurt (Koc University)

Asst. Prof. Pelin Gülşah Canbolat (Koc University)

Prof. Refik Güllü (Boğaziçi University)

Assoc. Prof. Semih Onur Sezer (Sabancı University)

Abstract:

Price uncertainties are among the most critical challenges that retailers and manufacturers have to face. For instance, companies whose operations require procuring from commodity markets are exposed to commodity price fluctuations which experience sharp movements frequently. Besides random nature of customer demand, due to this input and/or sales price volatility, there might be considerable variability in firms’ profits. It is vital for these firms to consider price fluctuations in adjusting inventory control and pricing policies, and take a variety of risk management measures. In this dissertation, we consider such a firm where continuous price changes during the planning horizon affect both unit payoff from sales as well as customer arrivals. In a multi-period setting, we first investigate optimal price-dependent inventory control policies and numerically illustrate how continuous price fluctuations affect optimal controls and resulting payoffs. Then, we analyze optimal pricing policies assuming that sales prices are determined both by market-driven random prices and firm’s markup decision. We show that level of price variability has a negative effect on firms’ final profits. Finally, in a minimum-variance framework, we explore financial hedging strategies of the risk-sensitive firm. We assume that inherent price dynamics of the inventory item are correlated with prices of various products which are freely traded in financial markets. This presents an opportunity for the firm to invest in a financial portfolio of these products to manage its exposure to price and demand uncertainties by observing the current inventory, wealth and price levels. In this environment, we explicitly characterize dynamic variance-minimizing investment decisions of the firm using dynamic programming. We then explore the risk reduction effects of minimum-variance financial hedges through numerical examples and show that significant risk reductions may be possible by using the right hedge.